Why are top colleges reducing the number of applicants they accept?
In 2020, only 15 colleges accepted less than 10% of their applicants, in 2021, 22 colleges accepted less than 10% of their applicants and in 2022, 26 colleges accepted less than 10% of their applicants. In 2023, with less than half of highly selective colleges reporting their acceptance rates, already 15 colleges have reported accepting less than 10% of their applicants.
The introduction of test optionality into the admissions process in 2021 was the key reason for the surge in applications to the highly selective colleges. More students felt it worth a try applying to these top colleges even if they did not have a test score that met the median because they could now apply without submitting a test score.
With limited capacity to admit applicants in the first place, many colleges issued about the same number of acceptances as they did in 2020 resulting in a natural a drop in the acceptance rate given the inflated denominator in the calculation.
However, the substantial increase in applications is not the only reason for the steady decrease in acceptance rates at the highly colleges.
So, what is going on?
Colleges with sharp drops in acceptances
The colleges with the sharpest drops in acceptance rates since the introduction of test optionality in 2021 are those that actively managed down the number of acceptances issued relative to prior years. Their falling acceptance rates are attributable to a combination of increased applications and an active reduction in acceptances issued.
We tracked the acceptance rates for the classes of 2024 to 2027 at 61 highly selective colleges, which we define to include those colleges with historical acceptance rates of 25% or less.
Table of Applications and Acceptances at Highly Selective Colleges for the Classes of 2027, 2026, 2025 and 2024.
Data obtained from Common Data Sets for Class of 2024, 2025 and 2026. Data for Class of 2027 obtained directly from college announcements and college affiliated student publications.
In 2021, 58 of the 61 colleges we tracked experienced increases in applications of varying magnitudes with the introduction of test optionality. The number of applications received by these colleges have remained elevated ever since and application levels are above where they used to be in 2020.
While the majority of colleges held steady or even slightly increased the number of acceptances they issued in the face of increased applications, there was a small group of colleges that systematically reduced the number of acceptances they issued over 3 admission cycles between 2021 and 2023.
For high schoolers targeting the highly selective colleges, stress, anxiety and panic rose as acceptance rates fell at these colleges that everyone had thought of as “safety” schools just a few short years ago.
Boston College, Boston University, Colgate University, Emory University, Northeastern University, Vanderbilt University, Villanova University and New York University, all once seen as great colleges that were relatively easy to gain admission to and were seen as “safety” schools have now become “stretch” schools for a new generation of college applicants.
Many liberal arts colleges have also managed down the number of acceptances issued between 2021 and 2023, thereby exacerbating the decrease in acceptance rates that were initially driven by the surge in applications received.
The University of California system seen as the failsafe option for California residents has seen the acceptance rates at its 2 flagship campuses at Berkeley and Los Angeles fall frighteningly low and panicked many an ambitious California high school student.
Let’s look more closely at what’s been happening at some of these colleges.
Boston College
At Boston College, the acceptance rate went from 26% in 2020 for the class of 2024 to 15% in 2023 for the class of 2027. The graph on the left below illustrates quite clearly the plunge in acceptances issued even as applications climbed and remained far above 2020 levels as illustrated by the graph on the right.
Meanwhile Boston College’s yield for the class of 2026 improved to 35% from 33% in 2025.
Note: Yield is the percentage of students who accept an offer of admission and matriculate to the college.
Emory University
At Emory University, acceptances initially rose in 2021 but then dropped precipitously in 2022 and 2023 for the classes of 2026 and 2027. Emory University’s acceptance halved from 20% in 2020 to 10% in 2023 for the class of 2027. Applications to Emory University initially spiked in 2021 for the class of 2025, but they dropped for the classes of 2026 and 2027 though overall applications remain far above 2020 before the introduction of test optionality.
Emory University’s yield improved from 30.5% in for the class of 2025 to 38% for the class of 2026.
Note: Yield is the percentage of students who accept an offer of admission and matriculate to the college.
New York University
At New York University, acceptance rates plunged from 21% in 2020 for the class of 2024 to 8% in 2023 for the class of 2027. In the face of steadily increasing applications, New York University systematically reduced the number of acceptances it issued.
We are unable to calculate New York University’s yield improvement as it has not yet released its Common Data Set for the Class of 2026. New York University’s yield for the class of 2025 was 51%.
Note: Yield is the percentage of students who accept an offer of admission and matriculate to the college.
Vanderbilt University
Vanderbilt University’s acceptance rate halved from 12% in 2020 to 6% in 2023. Vanderbilt steadily reduced the number of acceptances issued even as the number of applications Vanderbilt received climbed substantially and has stayed far above 2020 levels.
Vanderbilt University improved its yield to 52% for the class of 2026 from 48% for the class of 2025.
Note: Yield is the percentage of students who accept an offer of admission and matriculate to the college.
What are these colleges doing?
Colleges have always issued more acceptances to applicants than they have had capacity to absorb. Even at the Ivy League colleges, not every applicant offered a place will accept, so colleges have to hedge themselves and make more offers of acceptances than they have places at the college.
Historically, the ratio of places offered to the actual places available has varied quite substantially among the colleges.
The colleges at the top of the pecking order, like the Ivy League colleges, MIT, Stanford and other equivalently elite colleges have always had a majority of applicants offered a place accept their offer. So, these colleges do not have to issue that many excess offers in the first place since their yields (percentage of accepted students who matriculate to the college.) have always been high, usually between 65% and 85%.
These super elite colleges were not at risk of falling short of filling their class capacity, and they rarely had draw on the waitlist (1) to fill their classes. This explains why the Ivy League and the very elite colleges have always had such low acceptance rates since they have always had high confidence that a majority of those offered a place will accept the offer.
However, other highly selective colleges not in the same stratosphere as the Ivy League and equivalents, have had to work a lot harder to fill their classes, as a result of which, they routinely issued a far higher number of offers of acceptance to applicants on the assumption that their yields will be less than 50% even taking Early Decision admits into account. The ratio of places offered to actual places available at the college can be as high as 3 to 1 at many of these colleges. This explains why the acceptance rates at many colleges considered to be highly selective are still much higher than those of the Ivy league colleges.
What changed for these colleges?
Here are some important observations:
The reduction in the number of acceptances issued is indicative that a college is confident that a higher percentage of applicants offered a place will accept the offer, reducing the need to issue a large number of excess offers.
The test optionality driven increase in applications has likely given colleges better visibility into the profiles of applicants most likely to accept their offers of acceptance enabling colleges to confidently issue fewer offers of acceptance to more targeted applicant profiles.
Note that colleges are known to waitlist applicants who the deem to be overqualified and unlikely to matriculate, while making offers to applicants whose qualifications make them most likely to accept an offer.
Applicants who apply without test scores are most likely to have profiles that give colleges a high degree of confidence that they will accept if given an offer, thus enabling colleges to reduce the number of acceptances issued and still fill the class without resorting to the waitlist in any significant way.
The colleges are confident that they will not have to draw substantially from the waitlist even if they reduce the number of acceptances issued significantly.
The yield is an important metric for colleges to measure the success of their admissions office in identifying qualified applicants who will actually attend the college. For the admissions office’s perspective, the higher the yield the better. A reduction in the number of acceptances issued will automatically result in a higher yield, and the admissions offices will pursue this strategy so long as they are confident of the acceptances that will roll in.
Colleges look more exclusive and gain status when they demonstrate lower acceptance rates. Achieving a lower acceptance rate is certainly a secondary incentive for colleges even if acceptance rates per se do not impact US News College Rankings or internal evaluation metrics for the admissions office.
Implications for applicants
The absolute reduction in number of acceptances issued by the colleges means that there are now more applicants competing for a reduced number of acceptances issued by the colleges.
For applicants, this means a significant reduction in options. Where a comparable applicant in 2020 might have received four or five offers of acceptance, that same applicant in today’s admissions environment would only receive one or two offers.
To increase their chances of admission to a college within their target group of highly selective colleges, applicants must now increase the number of applications they submit from eight to ten in past years to at least, fifteen or more applications today.
Applicants need to dig deeper and identify colleges beyond the highly selective group to find their “safety” schools.
Applicants have no control over what the college admissions bureaucracy does to improve their internal metrics on yields.
But applicants can control how they perform academically, and what extracurriculars they pursue to demonstrate their passion, leadership and other qualities valued by the top colleges. These are ultimately some of the most important metrics in determining how competitive an applicant is for admission to a top college.
